Introducing XiNomics
Last week, China unveiled its most substantial stimulus measures since 2015. The triptych package, aimed at reviving growth, is essentially a domestic-oriented stimulus that could bring some “light at the end of the tunnel” for China equity investors, even if selectivity remains key. A welcome “first arrow” from policymakers which now calls for a second “fiscal arrow”. This time could be different: pessimists look at this move as “too little and too late”, but optimists like ourselves see this bold move as a clear willingness to put a floor on equity valuations, stop the deflation process and restore consumer confidence. We remain positive on emerging markets, China will provide an additional and much needed engine to the asset class, with positive repercussions on the rest of Asia. Investors remain largely absent from this market, the rally could have further legs.
September 30, 2024